Development ideas of China's paper industry under

Thoughts on the development of China's paper industry under the general trend of internationalization

after nearly a decade of rapid development since the eighth five year plan, China's paper industry has become an important force in the world's paper industry. In 1999, China's paper and paperboard output was 29million tons, ranking third in the world; The consumption is 35million tons, ranking second in the world, accounting for 12% of the world total. Although great achievements have been made, we also clearly see that China's paper industry is experiencing unprecedented challenges. Facing the impact of "foreign paper" and the imminent accession to the WTO, the future trend of reducing the use of materials and assembly time of China's paper industry is the focus of attention of many aspects, including the Chinese government, enterprises, financial institutions, foreign enterprises, international capital and so on. It is of great significance for promoting the healthy development of China's paper industry to carefully study the current situation of China's paper industry, analyze the opportunities and risks faced, and correctly grasp the development ideas from a strategic height

I. understanding of the development status of China's paper industry

1 The internationalization of domestic market is the biggest feature of China's paper industry at present

the internationalization of the domestic market is reflected in:

(1) in terms of products, China imports a large number of pulp, paper, cardboard and paper products every year. In 1999, China imported more than 12 million tons of the above three categories of products, with foreign exchange of 5.6 billion US dollars. The imported paper and paperboard accounted for 18.5% of the total consumption. It can be seen that the historical import volume showed an obvious increasing trend, and the import dependence continued to increase

(2) in terms of equipment, the key equipment for major technological transformation is basically imported from abroad

(3) in terms of capital, foreign investment is active. In the first three years of the ninth five year plan, a total of 27billion yuan was invested in infrastructure and technological transformation projects, of which foreign investment accounted for four fifths of the total investment

internationalization is even reflected in the economic benefits of enterprises. When the foreign market is good, the export or dumping of foreign enterprises to China will be less, and the benefits of domestic enterprises will be better; When the foreign market is weak, foreign enterprises will occupy the Chinese market at a low price, and the efficiency of domestic enterprises will be poor. 1995 was the best year for the world's paper industry, including China. However, the foreign market was bad in 1997, and Chinese enterprises were in a very difficult situation due to the low price and even dumping of foreign products. The benefits of China's paper industry are affected by the world market, "the world is as cool and hot as this"

the internationalization trend is irreversible, which is determined by the relative concentration of world papermaking resources and the global characteristics of paper consumption. As a country with a large population and a lack of forest resources, China cannot meet the needs of social development without importing foreign products. A deep understanding of this will help us correctly understand many problems faced by China's paper industry, such as whether to introduce foreign capital, whether to engage in economies of scale, whether to invest and build factories in places rich in foreign resources, how to treat the localization of technical equipment, how to look at anti-dumping, and so on. Only by recognizing the internationalization of the domestic market can we correctly grasp the development ideas of China's paper industry

2. "Internationalization" not only promotes the development of China's paper industry, but also poses a certain threat to the survival and development of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises

the decade since the eighth five year plan is a decade of rapid development of China's paper industry, and also a decade of continuous progress towards internationalization. In the past ten years, China has not only introduced a large number of advanced equipment and technology from abroad, shortening the gap between China and the world paper industry, but also introduced a large number of foreign capital and established some large joint ventures and wholly-owned enterprises. The establishment of these enterprises has played a significant role in alleviating the shortage of domestic high-end paper products. However, with the continuous development of foreign capital in China, it has brought huge competitive pressure to domestic enterprises, especially the large and medium-sized state-owned paper enterprises, the main force of China's paper industry

at a high-level seminar of paper-making enterprises, some enterprises proposed that after entering China, some foreign-funded enterprises would borrow money from domestic banks for project construction, which is to take domestic money, occupy the domestic market and squeeze domestic enterprises. I hope relevant parties can pay attention to this matter and put forward countermeasures

more experts pointed out pointedly that the future of China's paper industry is the opportunity of external mechanical property experiment. The reason why the next use can't be started due to the improper use of customers last time is the private world. Hearing this view makes large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises feel a crisis. Where will state-owned enterprises be in the future

facing internationalization, large and medium-sized state-owned paper enterprises are in a dilemma

3. Although the government and enterprises have taken positive measures, it is not enough to deal with the severe challenges of international competition

facing the general trend of internationalization, the Chinese government and enterprises have taken a series of measures to promote the rapid development of China's paper industry. The paper industry is listed as a key structural adjustment industry by the National Light Industry Bureau, and only the paper industry and sugar industry in the light industry are listed in the technical transformation discount loan project plan supported by the state. A number of large state-owned enterprises are accelerating the pace of technological transformation, and strive to form a situation that can compete with foreign products in several key varieties within a few years

however, compared with the measures of foreign companies, the development of China's paper industry is far from enough. Even for the paper supported by the state in recent years, the annual production capacity of the country is still less than 1.4 million tons; In foreign countries, a large paper mill can produce more than 1million tons per year, with significant economies of scale. In addition, large foreign companies have created giants in the paper industry through mergers and Acquisitions: the top five paper companies in the world account for 35% of the world's total paper production capacity; The top 10 paper companies account for 54% of the world's total paper production capacity. As the cost of mergers and acquisitions among enterprises is lower than that of establishing new enterprises, and the return on investment is high, international mergers and acquisitions have become the trend of the world paper industry in the near future

the emergence of foreign giant paper enterprises has transformed the market structure of the world paper industry from monopoly competition to oligopoly. Under such a market structure, the development of small and medium-sized enterprises will become more and more difficult. At present, the development of domestic enterprises mainly depends on their own funds and state loans, but due to their lack of accumulation and the shortage of national construction funds, it is impossible to build a large-scale enterprise immediately. In the face of international competition, China's paper-making enterprises are now "self-cleaning in front of the door, with rich interface expansion capabilities: up to 4-way 24 bit analog input". There is more competition and less cooperation among domestic enterprises. The national support policy is sunny and lacks focus. Taking paper as an example, major domestic paper mills are undergoing transformation, and the new scale of each enterprise is no more than 150000 tons

the domestic situation of fighting independently has formed a sharp contrast with the wave of foreign mergers and acquisitions

without internationalization, China's paper industry has no way out; Internationalization will threaten the survival and development of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises. The grim reality requires that China's paper industry must come up with a set of practical development ideas

II. Discussion on the development ideas of China's paper industry

1 In order to meet the social demand for paper, China's paper industry must take the international road of utilizing foreign capital

the paper industry is a capital intensive industry. It is predicted that from now on to 2010, China's paper industry will need to invest at least 200billion yuan to keep up with the growth rate of consumption. In the case of limited national investment capacity, foreign capital must be used to meet China's paper demand. Any practice that opposes the entry of foreign capital under the banner of protecting national industries and supporting state-owned enterprises is narrow and harmful

2. Facing the huge market, paper enterprises should be fully prepared to cope with the rapid development of the industry

the paper industry is a rare industry in short supply at present, and the market development potential is great. It is very important to correctly predict the development speed of the industry, so as to make ideological and material preparations in advance to adapt to the fierce market competition

at present, there are many models to study the development speed of paper industry. Someone summed up that the speed of paper industry in the past was basically consistent with the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) through mathematical regression, and then speculated on the future development speed of paper industry according to the speed of national GDP. Development comes from investment. Due to the large investment in the paper industry, it was mainly invested by the state in the past. The development speed of the paper industry was arranged and controlled by the state according to the GDP plan, rather than the internal law of the development of the paper industry is consistent with the GDP growth rate. With the increase of investment autonomy of commercial banks and the entry of foreign capital, market demand will become the main factor determining the development speed in the future. Due to the large product gap in the current market, the development speed of China's paper industry is likely to exceed the forecast value to a large extent, especially in individual varieties, there will be unexpected rapid growth

"calculate more and win more, calculate less and win less". Paper enterprises should pay enough attention to the development speed of the industry. Only by formulating the development plan of the enterprise according to the dynamic competitive situation of the industry and taking effective follow-up measures, can they be neutral and stable in the industry. Otherwise, in the face of rapid growth and fierce competition in domestic and foreign markets, they will be eliminated due to lack of preparation

3. Adopt the game strategy of "Tianji horse racing" to deal with international competition and preserve and strengthen large and medium-sized enterprises in large countries. Take paper as an example. If the market is divided into three grades: high, medium and low, the competitive strategy of Chinese enterprises should be: in the good times of the global market, because foreign enterprises will reduce exports to China (as in 1995), at this time, use the color offset paper produced by the new project to occupy the high-end market, Use unmodified ordinary offset paper to occupy the mid-range market, and use the products of small and medium-sized enterprises outside the nine major paper mills to occupy the low-end market; When the global market is depressed, due to the low cost of foreign products, it is bound to sell at a low price to China. At this time, part of the high-end market can be ceded to foreign imported paper. The extruded domestic high-grade paper can occupy the mid-range market, ordinary offset paper can occupy the low-end market, and the products in the original low-end market are eliminated. In this way, the nine paper mills can not only survive even in the fierce international competition, but also squeeze across small enterprises, which will help enterprises develop and expand in the direction of scale. Relying on technical resources and customer advantages to win market share

in addition, China's annual export of paper and paper products has reached nearly one million tons, earning nearly $1 billion in foreign exchange. China is rich in non wood fiber resources and cheap raw materials. Therefore, if the quality of non wood fiber paper can be further improved and the market can be positioned to meet the demand of the international market for some mid-range products, this differentiated competition strategy can be adopted to meet the international challenges with its own internationalization, which will open up a new path for the development of China's paper industry

4. Domestic enterprises should actively carry out